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  • ڣ2014-12-22
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ԭ⣺е

/Լ•ɵ£John S. Hammond•ᣨRalph L. Keeney•׷Howard Raiffa

 

ÿҪĹ˷Ҳðաʧԭڣھ߷ʽȷûҵõѡûռ׼ȷϢɱļʧȣҲʱʧԭ򲢲ھ߹̱ھ߱˵뷨

 

һֱŬоԵĹʽǰͷоʵزԶʱʶǰij˼ά߹еĸ⡣£涼Ϊǵľṩȷݣʱˡ˵жԶһ㶼йϵ忴ԽǾ֪ԽжԶʱпܱǰijԻ󣬿ƽʱҪԶճУһ㲻дӰ죬ԷԱֳĴԵġ

 

оѷӰ˼άһϵƵȱݻ壬ЩǴĸоЩƫЩ˼άзԵء֮ԳΪ“”Ϊױ˲Ǿǵ˼άС

 

“ê”

 

һ˶ش⣺

 

1.˿ڳ3500

 

2.˿ж٣

 

һ˻شƵ⡣

 

1.˿ڳ1

 

2.Ϊ˿ж٣

 

ʵ֤ڻشڶʱ˵һӰ죬ڶĴŵһֵ򵥵ʵ˵һֳк󣬼“ê”ЧӦ

 

һʱǵĴԻԵõĵһϢرӡһӡݾ뺣׵êһǵ˼ά̶ijһ

 

“ê”ЧӦַʽֶͬеһϵһС֡ҵУ“ê”ơг߻Աƶۼƻʱοȥļƻļƻֿܳأóֿ׼ȷǡģһζԭ֣ԭ־“ê”

 

̸ߺ“ê”ЧӦԴﵽԼĿġǻѡݺʵ˵Է˵һҹ˾Ҫڿһ´ھһҵһλúʩȽ¥ǰҷ̼档һʼĺͬ£10ꣻÿƽӢÿ2Ԫÿ۸۵Ƿȶڵĸװ⻧10Ժ⻧Ƿӳڡ

 

˾ɳ̸д˷ǽ˴󲿷ֻǰѼ۸ѹһЩҪ󷿲̳еһװ޷áʵҹ˾̸ͨȡø棬Ѽ۸񽵵гϵͼۣһε۸񣬹涨۸ޣ涨ӳڵĸȡźǣǵ˼ά̵ĺͬıˣǵ˷“ê”壬Ϊ˶ึ

 

ôƹ“ê”أ

 

ӲͬĽǶ⡣ûѡ񣬲Ҫһζĵһ뷨

 

ǰԼһ⣬һ㣬Ҫ˵ҡ

 

˼档ѰͬԿ˼άԭе

 

עⲻҪƹʡѯԱ˼άǽʱҪ͹۹Ҫ˵Ĺ۵Ӱǵ˼·

 

رע̸ʱҪܶԷ“ê”Ӱ졣ڲΪԷ޵ͬʱѰǡʱ“ê”ЧӦӰԷӶʹԼһλá

 

 

“״”ݽ

 

һʵ飬10˳ÿ˶һС֣һֻƯıӣһǺóԵʿɿֵͬÿ˶˽˵Ӧһ˻ȥеȴֻһˡʲôԭأ“״”ЧӦá

 

“״”ÿһ˵ͷУһ汣Ҫ“״”Ҫȡжжζŷգеվпָ𲢽ڡά“״”ڴ£ΪǼѹ;ͬʱȴʧ˻ᡣ

 

ճеľǣǵѡԽʱԽ“״”Ӱ졣·̵·ƷԽ࣬ѡԽѣԼѡܻԽ⡣

 

˾µµΪԱһ㲢޶գµӣȴµˣпܻһָ۽𣬳㡣๫˾ʵʩչ󣬶ԸðһȫµĺĹһ͵ɾ“ȶһ˵”ʵʱϵԽáеĽṹӰԽι̣ıԽѡ

 

ôԸ“״”ʲô취أ

 

μԼĿ꣬ʱԼǷΪ“״”ţеDzɹϰ

 

һҪ“״”ΪѡȥĿԣϸȨе׵ʧ

 

ҪԼijɱŬֻˡ

 

ס“״”Ŀʱıı䡣“״”Dzͬնġ

 

б“״”õѡ񣬲Ҫ¸ŬԼȥʵ

 

“֤”

 

һеȹģ˾ľҪһǷȡӻ豸ļƻΪ㵣Ĺ˾ҵȥ㻹ijڵصĻҿֵܻӶӰIJƷջٳڡǰһλѣոշһƻܵĽǣȰϽȡ豸IJɹƻôأ

 

ȱæΪпܻ“֤”塣“֤”ʹѰЩ֧Լ֤ݣͬԼìܵϢ

 

ƹ“֤”أ

 

ԼԸϢǷͬӣֻ“֤”

 

Լ෴ķȥ룬һߣһγ׵ıۡ

 

ԼĶռϢȷľأֻΪԼľ“֤”

 

ʱҪ“ΩǴ”Ĺʻѯʦһһֱ˵“ǣԡ”ôҪϽˡ

 

“ṹ”

 

һһʵͱڵݡΪ˼ٳշãݶڷƵ޸ġǣݳ߷ijЩͨ¼ȨǿٽһЩշѡڱ﷽ʽϣݵķɹ涨“ԶijЩͨ¼Ȩ”

 

ݵķ涨“ӵнͨ¼Ȩ”

 

ǣ80ѡȨֻ25ͬһѡ񡣽ڷĵĴDzͬʡ2ԪijշѺϷѡ

 

“ṹ”Ӱ죬ʽں̶ܴϻӰľôֹܷ“ṹ”ijأ

 

Ҫеؽ⡣ĻDZģӲͬĽǶȲͬʷ

 

Լһ֤ġб׵⡣

 

ھ߹УҪϻ⣬ر󣬸Ҫһ¸ıʷԾ߻ʲôĺ

 

˸ԵοʱһǿĽǶȣԼһ±Ƚϡ

 

“”

 

һ“”ðɡÿﶼͬĿŮһŮ˺͵ڶ˴ˣʵ֤˶ΪһŮ˶࣬ڶ˶࣬˵“”ɡ

 

ǾݹȥԤ⽫ôȥش¼ͷ̼¼ɻ“”壬ʹǵ˼ά뿪ƫһ򣬴Ӷ¾ߵʧ

 

ֹܷ“”ijأ

 

ϸĸԤ룬ȷûб“”Ӱ죻һЩݡҲҪעռʱҪ߳“”ضش¼˼άӰ졣

 

ǵĴڲͣ˼ʱǣ谭ǡھߵÿһʱ̡ÿһڣƫСϷӰǡʶǵĴںΣԣٿԲԺԼԼҳԼ۴󣬲ȡжܿЩߵ壬ΣδȻ;

 

Դҵ

 
 
 
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